Global Macro Trading
Current Cycle
CURRENT CYCLE — THREE-PHASE FRAMEWORK
An AI and millennial expansion running inside the post-2008 dollar-credit contraction.
Phase 1 — Initial inflationary buildout (Current)
AI capex, power and grid investment, fiscal support and millennial demand drive nominal growth, fueling inflation and supporting risk assets. The dollar weakens into the shaded zone on the Fundamental Thesis chart.
Phase 2 — Reset (Projected)
A sharp risk-off reset driven by rising oil prices, inflation, interest rates and tightening credit, compounded by growing doubts about AI economics. The dollar rallies sharply, pushing just above its 2022 high (about 115).
Phase 3 — Final Advance (Projected)
Policy intervention stabilizes markets, setting the stage for a final advance in risk assets into the AI capex cycle peak. Risk assets rebuild, while the dollar holds above its Phase 1 low.
Beyond the cycle
As the AI investment cycle ends, the longer-term dollar-credit contraction outlined in the Fundamental Thesis resumes.