WTI Crude (CLZ26)
Opened October 23, 2026
Working chart · Daily · Updated Nov 3
Avg entry
$103.41
Target
$150
Position
- Core futures: 50% open (half sold Nov 2)
- LEAP calls: Dec ’27 + Jun ’28 90s
- Tactical: Jan micros, opened Nov 3
Realized (sold half)
−$7.24
Unrealized (remaining half)
−$15.29
avg-cost basis
Thesis
Current Cycle · Phase 1The 2020 COVID lows marked the beginning of a new bull market in crude oil. After consolidating off the 2022 highs, we see another leg higher toward the 2008 peak near $150 before the Phase 2 Reset.
Geopolitical energy supply shocks and the AI infrastructure buildout support the advance. Rising oil prices could eventually fuel the inflation and tighter financial conditions that trigger the Reset.
Original Setup
The original long was initiated on a breakout above $100, supported by a rising daily price structure. The plan was to add on higher pivots and confirmed continuation.
Exit
Core futures and LEAP calls: I'll exit on a daily close below $85.00 on the January contract.
Tactical January micros: these now exit with the core, on a daily close below $85.00 on the January contract.
Additional exposure: no further additions while Ring Energy (REI) trades below $1.28.
Trade Journal
Newest first.
- Risk UpdateNov 4
Oil gapped down hard after the midterms. With price already close to core support, I moved the tactical micros' exit down from $92.25 to the core line. Everything now exits on a daily close below $85.00 on the January contract. Now we see if 85 holds.
- Entry · TacticalNov 3 · Jan micro futures · $95.37
Bought the 93.59 rejection candle early. Exit: daily close < $92.25. Add on a hold of that line; manage off higher lows.
Long-Term Structural View
2020 low ~$20 = start of new bull market. Next: test of 2008 highs (~$147). Trend higher.