GBP/JPY

Working chart · Daily · Updated Nov 3

2 adds

avg-cost basis

Thesis

GBP/JPY has spent nearly three decades building a base, with the 2020 low near 120 potentially marking the start of a new secular bull market. I'm looking for a sustained advance toward 265.

Another geopolitical energy shock could reignite inflation, much like the post-COVID recovery and the 2022 energy crisis. If UK inflation stays stubborn, interest rates could remain higher for longer relative to Japan, supporting a major advance in GBP/JPY.

Initial Position

This is an existing long position brought into the journal. The plan is to build the position as the uptrend develops, adding on pullbacks that hold support and breakouts that confirm the move higher.

Exit

Adds: I'll exit the adds if GBP/JPY closes below 212 on the daily chart.

Core position: I'll reassess the broader trade if it closes below 207.50.

Trade Journal

Newest first.

• Add #2 · CarryNov 4 · 213.33

  I added a carry position: long the pound, funded by borrowing yen. I'll exit it if GBP/JPY closes below 212 on the daily chart.

• Add #1 · SpotNov 3 · 212.96
  

  GBP/JPY closed back above 212 and its 200-day moving average, so I added to the position. I'll exit this add if it closes back below 212. For the next add, I'm watching for either a pullback that holds above 212 or a breakout confirmed by a daily close above 217.

Long-Term Structural View

GBP/JPY has been building a base since the mid-1990s. The 2020 low near 120 may have marked the beginning of a new secular uptrend.