EUR/USD
Structural View
Summary
Direction: Multi-Decade EUR/USD Bear Market
Expected Path: Range / chop → EUR/USD breakout higher → advance toward 1.30–1.40 → potential cycle turn → EUR/USD reversal lower
Confirmation: EUR/USD breaks above 1.25
Invalidation: Sustained EUR/USD break below parity before the projected advance develops
Timeframe: Multi-year counter-trend move → structural bear market resumes
What I’m Watching
Potential Donchian Pattern — 2008–09 decline → 2009–14 sideways range → 2014–15 second decline → base building / counter-trend move approaching the former sideways range.
AI Cycle / Cycle Turn — 1.30–1.40 potential cycle-turn zone as the AI investment cycle matures.