U.S. Dollar
EUR/USD is used as the primary expression of the U.S. dollar outlook.
Structural Cycle
Summary
Direction: Long-Term U.S. Dollar Bullish
Expected Path: Range / chop → EUR/USD breakout higher → Advance toward 1.35–1.40 → AI cycle completion → EUR/USD reversal → Dollar bull market resumes
Confirmation: EUR/USD breaks above 1.25
Invalidation: Sustained EUR/USD break below parity
Timeframe: Multi-year counter-trend move → Multi-decade structural dollar bull market
What I’m Watching
Potential Donchian Pattern — 2008–09 decline → 2009–14 sideways range → 2014–15 second decline → base building / counter-trend move approaching the sideways range
Dollar Policy / Range — Policy preference for a managed dollar reinforces the range / chop view during the current phase.